Volatility Analysis of Cryptocurrencies using Statistical Approach and GARCH Model a Case Study on Daily Percentage Change

Abstract

Cryptocurrency has become a significant subject in the global financial market, attracting investors and traders with its high volatility and profit potential. This study analyzes the daily volatility and GARCH volatility of six major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), USD Coin (USDC), Tether (USDT), and Ripple (XRP). Daily percentage change data and GARCH volatility are analyzed over specific time periods. The analysis reveals that Bitcoin (BTC) has an average daily percentage change of 0.366%, while Ethereum (ETH) has 0.376%. Litecoin (LTC) shows a daily percentage change of 0.166%, whereas USD Coin (USDC) and Tether (USDT) have very low daily percentage changes, nearly approaching zero. In terms of GARCH volatility, Ethereum (ETH) stands out with a volatility of 0.198, followed by Bitcoin (BTC) with a volatility of 0.121. The study's results indicate that cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to extreme price fluctuations, evidenced by their asymmetry distribution and kurtosis. Volatility correlation analysis reveals significant relationships, important for risk management and portfolio diversification. These findings contribute to understanding cryptocurrency volatility characteristics and aid stakeholders in making informed investment decisions.